The draft is not a ranked list. It is a pool-allocation problem.
The engine prices a team's whole board as the surplus-maximizing distribution of a fixed bonus pool across the available talent, not pick by pick. The overslot-underslot game is the centerpiece, because that is where the draft is actually won: leverage priced from each amateur's class and outside option sets where a bonus lands and how much pool it consumes or frees, and each pick is read as surplus, the projected professional value at its wide amateur band against the bonus his leverage commands. Every dollar and rule is flagged current-as-of and held in the Reference, against a draft structure the next CBA may rewrite.
Bank it early, spend it overslot later.
The draft bonus pool is the real constraint: the sum of the slot values for a team's early picks, distributable across the board as the team chooses. The engine evaluates the whole draft as a pool-allocation problem, the surplus-maximizing distribution, not pick by pick, because the pool penalties make it a near-hard cap.
The pool is $11.2M, and the game is distributing it: bank $0.8M by signing a college player underslot early, then spend it to sign a fallen high schooler well overslot later. The engine prices the whole draft as that surplus-maximizing distribution, because the pool is a near-hard cap. The draft is a pool-allocation problem, not a ranked list signed pick by pick.
Illustrative engine read on the real pool-allocation game (the bonus pool as the constraint, the underslot-early-to-overslot-later move, the pool penalties that make it a near-hard cap). Composite figures flagged v0 and current-as-of.
Leverage is the pricing engine. Class and outside option set the bonus.
Each amateur's leverage is priced from his class and outside option, and leverage sets where in the slot-to-overslot range a bonus lands and how much pool space the player consumes or frees. Leverage is the pricing engine of the draft.
The high schooler's college commitment commands at or above slot and consumes pool; the junior lands near slot; the senior signs for almost nothing and frees pool for the overslot prep talents. Leverage, read from class and outside option, is the pricing engine of the draft. Leverage prices the bonus and the pool it consumes or frees, which is what makes the overslot game possible.
Illustrative engine read on the real prep-versus-college leverage (bonus and pool consumption priced from class and outside option, the senior-underslot-to-fund-overslot move). Composite amateurs, demonstration figures flagged v0 and current-as-of.
Rank by surplus per pool, not by raw talent.
Each pick is read as surplus: the player's projected professional value, through the amateur-to-pro engine at its wide amateur band, against the bonus his leverage commands. So the board ranks by surplus generated per dollar of pool, not by raw talent.
Each pick is a surplus, projected pro value against the leverage-priced bonus, and the board ranks by surplus per pool of a fixed budget. The top buys the highest ceiling at the widest band, the value picks beat their slot on surplus, and the whole board is one allocation, not a talent ranking. The board ranks by surplus per pool, not raw talent, because the pool is the constraint and the surplus is the payload.
Illustrative engine read on the real board-as-surplus-per-pool (projected pro value at the wide amateur band against the leverage-priced bonus, ranked by surplus per dollar of pool). Composite board, demonstration figures flagged v0 and current-as-of.
The draft is a pool-allocation problem, and the engine prices it as one: the surplus-maximizing distribution of a fixed pool across a leverage-priced board, not a ranked list signed pick by pick. The overslot-underslot game is the whole strategy, because the pool is a near-hard cap and the surplus is the payload. Leverage from class and outside option prices each bonus and the pool it consumes or frees, every pick is a projected pro value at its wide amateur band against that bonus, and the board ranks by surplus per pool, with every dollar flagged current-as-of against a structure the next CBA may rewrite.
Allocate the pool. Maximize the surplus.
The MLB Draft prices a whole board as the surplus-maximizing distribution of a fixed bonus pool: the overslot-underslot game, leverage priced from class and outside option, and each pick read as projected pro value against its bonus, ranked by surplus per pool. proposed 2028 overhaul · flagged as a proposal