Availability is value. And the staff that protects it is a named actor.
The medical and player-health staff is graded on the availability gain over what the roster's injury profile predicted, normalized for load and roster, not on raw games missed. Availability is value in a sport where the widest band any player carries is his health, and the pitcher's is the widest of all, because the injury and workload stack is multiplicative and can collapse a projection rather than shave it. The engine holds health as a projection-and-availability term and never lets it touch a rating: the staff moves the availability band, splits the credit against the roster's inherited risk, and passes the portability test only if the edge shows up across rosters and regimes. The framing stays clinical and non-graphic throughout.
Games and innings preserved over what the roster predicted.
The medical and player-health staff is an availability actor: games and innings preserved over what the roster's age, workload, and injury history predicted. The credit is the gain over the expected attrition, normalized for load and roster composition, because a staff handed a young, low-mileage roster will post good raw numbers it did not earn.
The staff preserved 24 games and 34 innings over what the roster's profile predicted, normalized for load and composition, at a sample-and-context-gated 57%. Availability is the product, and the gain over expectation is the read, not the raw games-missed column. Availability is value, and the credit is the games saved over expectation, not the healthy roster it inherited.
Illustrative engine read on the real availability gain (games and innings preserved over the roster's predicted attrition, normalized for load and roster). Composite staff, demonstration figures; framing clinical and non-graphic.
The staff moves the band. It never touches the KR.
Pitchers carry the widest band in the sport, and the injury and workload stack is multiplicative: a durability problem does not shave a projection, it can collapse it. The medical staff's largest effect is here, on whether it keeps arms available relative to the workload-and-injury expectation, and it shows up as a modifier on the availability band, never on the rating.
The staff narrows the pitcher's availability band from 120-to-185 innings to 160-to-195 and lifts its floor, while his KR holds at 88.0 throughout. The health read moves the band the rating sits inside, and never the rating itself. Health moves the availability band. It never touches the KR.
Illustrative engine read on the real pitcher-durability read (the multiplicative injury and workload stack as a modifier on the availability band, the KR held fixed). Composite pitcher, demonstration figures; framing clinical and non-graphic.
A durable roster stays healthy almost regardless.
The credit is split, and separated from the roster's inherent risk. A roster built on old, high-mileage, injury-flagged players will miss time no matter how good the staff is, and a young, durable roster will stay healthy almost regardless, so the residual removes the inherited risk profile and reports what the staff actually added or cost.
The roster's risk profile predicted 480 player-days lost, the actual was 360, and the residual is 120 days saved, with the credit split giving the staff 38% and the inherited risk profile the largest share. The engine removes the risk the roster walked in with and reports only what the staff added. A durable roster stays healthy almost regardless, so the residual reports the games saved over the risk, not the risk that never came due.
Illustrative engine read on the real credit split and risk-profile separation (predicted attrition minus actual equals the availability residual, split between staff, roster risk, and machine). Composite staff, demonstration figures; framing clinical and non-graphic.
Availability is value, and the medical staff is graded on the availability it adds over what the roster's health predicted, normalized and portable-tested. The engine holds health as a projection-and-availability term and never lets it touch a rating, because a staff earns credit for the games it saves over expectation, not for the durable roster it happened to inherit. The pitcher's availability band is the widest and most multiplicative read in the sport, and the staff moves that band, narrowing it and lifting its floor, while the KR inside it holds still.
Grade the availability. Leave the rating alone.
Medical grades the health staff on the games and innings it saves over the roster's predicted attrition, normalized for load and roster, moves the pitcher's availability band without touching his KR, removes the inherited risk profile, and runs the portability test.